In 2022, KNP worried about technological evolution and democratic backsliding. When aggregating changes of all countries, the world has been going back to autocracy for more than 5 years:
But ongoing changes are much scarier than the above graph. Because not only are most countries getting less democratic, but oligarchic regimes are developing much faster than democracies.
Last year, Pierre Fortin analyzed Canada’s productivity stall, mostly blaming immigration:
In 2018, Hans Rosling already noted that “Most countries that make great economic and social progress are not democracies.”
This August, The Wall Street Journal’s Europe Is Losing article
pointed out slow progress since 2009, 2005 and even 2000. During that time, Europe has considerably slowed its participation in environmental disruption, but not as much as the USA:
As if the above was not enough, Japan’s productivity has not increased for more than a decade:
This stall may largely be caused by its aging population.
Meanwhile, the country which used to be the largest democracy is breaking down.
Russia’s invasion must be a wake-up call. The fall of communism was last millennium. Europe is losing for sure, but for more than a decade, democracy has been losing―by every measure:
Liberal Democracy Index, 1974–2024. © 2025 Marina Nord, Fabio Angiolillo, Ana Good God, Staffan I. Lindberg
The title of the V-Dem Institute’s 2025 Democracy Report is bleak: 25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?
Looking forward: slowing down oligarchization
The ongoing oligarchic productivity catch-up largely results from diffusion of technologies from democracies. In particular in oligarchies which do not respect democratic IP, and even more in those which steal it. Our first measure should be to take technology seriously, securing our infrastructure and reacting to espionage (not by encouraging it, but by preventing its spread). A second measure could be to sanction state-sponsored espionage, perhaps with widespread import taxes on technology from rogue states, so that democracies avoid purchasing technological goods and services from China and others just because theft made them cheaper. Levying such tariffs would unfortunately have to be quite approximative (since even our awareness of industrial espionage is highly incomplete), but it would reward research rather than espionage.
In his article “The EU-US productivity gap and Europe's hidden strength”, reporter Peder Schaefer points out that Europe’s sub-performance mostly comes from technology:
In fact, Draghi shows that almost all of the labor productivity gap between the EU and US can be chalked up to technology.
Technology is easier to adopt then discover; oligarchy’s ability to catch up does not imply being able to then take the lead. But corporations which produce technology are particularly global and mobile; they will largely decide where to locate their R&D based on the cheapest cost. With corporate tax rates at 25% or above in all major European states, Europe is struggling to compete with the USA and the rest of the world. As The WSJ writes, Europe’s extreme focus on short-term (personal) welfare is long-established, but its aging population is making matters unsustainable, with governmental spending on elders and health exceeding a fifth of GDP in most major European countries.
Democracy is getting old―a sure sign of its success, but also of its increasing fragility. If it wants to stay on top of technology, it needs to age wisely. When under attack, seeking balance over ideals is even more vital.
Nobody considers Athenian democracy as a reference; let us be humble enough to recognize that what we call democracy today is hundreds of years old and possibly just as flawed. By clinging to our obsolete ways and by attacking our allies, we are letting our orgueil and delusions precipitate us back into oligarchy.
Democracy is losing manufacturing, technology and ground; let us hope it has not lost its ability to renew itself.
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